Zhouying Jin, Summer 2003, Journal of Futures Research Quarterly, U.S.

Abstract: Along with the strength of the trend of economic and S&T globalization, issues of the rationality, effectivity and operability of technology forecast have been again raised to the agenda. In this paper, the author proposes the 4th generation of technology foresight under the framework of broad technological innovation system, in which soft technology & hard technology are equally stressed, and multi-dimension of the society, economy and environment will be enhanced.

Key words: technology foresight; the 3rd generation of technology foresight; the 4th generation technology foresight

Table of content
1) The evolution and development of technology forecasting
(1) the three climaxes of technology foresight
　　--from technology forecasting to technology foresight
(2) the theory of four stages of technology foresight

2) Third generation technology foresight and technological driving forces

3) Fourth generation technology foresight and soft technology
(1) Technology foresight and the innovation system
(2) Soft technology and the goals of technology foresight
(3) The causal analysis of the failure of technology forecasting
(4) A powerful tool for strategic planning
(5) The embryo of fourth generation technology foresight

4) Technology foresight in developing countries