Study initiated and conducted by Theodore J. Gordon

The State of the Future Index is constructed of key variables and forecasts that, in the aggregate, depict whether the future promises to be better or worse over the next 10 years. The variables included in the index were suggested and rated by a global lookout panel previously, to show change in the 15 Global Challenges. The number of variables was constrained to 20, due to the availability of reliable data over the previous 20 years.

The SOFI is intended to show the directions and intensity of change in the outlook and to identify the factors responsible for change. Some of the Millennium Project’s experiments with the index have illustrated how it might be used for policy purposes by demonstrating the effects of proposed policies on a nominal State of the Future Index. The SOFI approach provides a mechanism for studying the relationships among the elements of a system—how making a single change ripples throughout a system, creating the possibility of both intended and unintended consequences over the next 10 years.

Variables Included in the 2005 SOFI:
·Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
·Food availability (calories per capita in developing countries)
·GDP per capita, PPP (constant 1995 dollars)
·Share of households with access to safe water (15 most populated countries)
·Mean monthly carbon dioxide in atmosphere (ppm)
·Annual population addition (million)
·Percent unemployed (world)
·Literacy rate (% of people ages 15 and over)
·Annual AIDS deaths (million)
·Life expectancy (world)
·Number of armed conflicts (those with at least 1,000 deaths per year)
·Developing-country debt
·Forestlands (million hectares)
·People living on less than $2 per day (million)
·Terrorist attacks (number of people killed or wounded)
·Violent crime (per 100,000 population, in 17 countries)
·Share of population living in countries that are not free
·Secondary school enrollment (% of school age)
·Share of population with access to local health care (in 15 most populated countries)
·Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons

The first description of the State of the Future Index was presented in the Millennium Project’s 2001 State of the Future. Each year since then, the SOFI has been reevaluated and recalculated, based on improvements in the data sources and methods, and has been presented in the annual State of the Future reports.

State of the Future Index 2005
Annual SOFI Comparisons (considering revised data for each year)

Read the SOFI study (PDF file excerpt from 2005 State of the Future) for:
- SOFI history, description, logic, and suggested uses
- Annual Global SOFIs since 2001
- National SOFIs for 10 American countries (2004 and 2005)